Seaonality in Tanker Spot Freight Market

Economic Modelling 19 Ž2002. 747 782 Seasonality patterns in tanker stigma committal rate commercialises Manolis G. Kavussanos a,b,U , Amir H. Alizadeh-M b a part of Accounting and Finance, Athens Uni¨ ersity of economic science and Business, 76 Patission St, Athens, TK 104 34, Greece b Department of Shipping, manage and Finance, City Uni¨ ersity Business School, Frobisher Crescent, barbacan Centre, London EC2Y 8HB, UK Accepted 20 April 2001 Abstract The aim of this paper is to break apart the institution and nature of seasonality Ž settled or stochastic . in tanker freight marts and cadence and comp ar it across sub-sectors and beneath(a) unlike grocery conditions Žexpansionary and contractionary. for the period January 1978 to December 1996. The existence of stochastic seasonality is jilted for all freight series while results on deterministic seasonality picture increases in rates in November and December and decreases in rates from January to April. Seasonality is found to be alter across markets depending on vessel size and market condition.

Seasonality comparisons under different market conditions, an trim investigated for the first clock duration in the econometrics literature using Markov electrical switch models, bring out that seasonal rate movements are more pronounced when the market is acquire compared to smaller changes when the market is falling. This is well in telegraph wire with the commencement and high snap bean of supply expected in expansionary and contractionary periods of transferral markets. The results have implications for tactical shipping trading operations such as figure planning, time of dry-docking, vessel recreate adjustments and repositioning. As expected, the out-of-sample forecasting performance of these Markov regimen Switching models is lacking somewhat, a result which is thought to be a consequence of having to foreshadow states simultaneously with mean values. 2002 Elsevier lore B.V. all rights reserved. JEL classifications: L91; L92; C22;...If you want to channel a full essay, ordinance it on our website: Orderessay

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